Not long ago, the global population reached a new high of 8 billion people and is projected to hit over 10 billion by the end of this century. This growth in the world’s population will be highly clustered in cities, particularly in low- and middle-income countries in sub-Saharan Africa and southeast Asia.
At the same time, the evidence is clear that climate impacts are felt disproportionately in urban communities, threatening lower-income and socially marginalised populations the most.
In this interview, Kathy Nothstine, Head of Future Cities, spoke with Peter Oborn, the President of the Commonwealth Association of Architects, to learn more about what is needed to accelerate innovation to support sustainable, equitable growth in rapidly growing cities.
What are the greatest challenges facing cities in the Global South, today and in the future?
The challenges facing cities in the Global South are acute.
According to figures produced by UN-Habitat, 95% of the projected increase in the world’s urban population to 2050 will be taking place in Asia and Africa, with nearly 50% of that growth taking place in Commonwealth countries. That’s a doubling of the existing urban population in the Commonwealth from 1bn to 2bn in the next 30 years!
95% of the cities most at risk from climate impacts are also located in these same two regions. A situation that is further compounded by the findings from a recent survey which reveals a critical lack of capacity among built environment professionals (ie architects, planners and engineers) in many of the Commonwealth countries that are urbanising most rapidly. For example, there are circa 250 architects and 150 planners in Uganda, a country of over 48m people, that is urbanising at over 6% per annum. These challenges are having a disproportionate impact in the public sector and in secondary cities where most of the Commonwealth’s urban population actually lives and which are growing just as fast as their larger counterparts.
The survey also revealed a corresponding lack of educational and institutional capacity in those same countries, together with a weakness in built environment policy, such as planning policy and building code. For example, cities account for over 70% of global carbon emissions yet less than a third of Commonwealth countries enforce a mandatory building energy code.
Against such a backdrop, it’s hard to imagine how we can expect such countries to urbanise in a sustainable manner without additional tools and resources and we only have to look at existing levels of informality to see the social and economic consequences of unplanned/poorly planned development in terms of inequality and vulnerability. Failure to deal properly with such growth and the accompanying increase in carbon emissions will have devastating environmental impacts for us all.
What do you think will help leaders in rapidly growing cities plan for a more sustainable, inclusive future?
With 65% of the 169 targets underpinning the 17 Sustainable Development Goals attributable to urban and territorial planning, urban planning needs to be considered at many different levels: at national level in terms of national urban policy, at city level in terms of local plans and at community level in terms of neighbourhood development.
Urban planning is also a complex process, with many different elements and multiple stakeholders to be considered, a situation which is made all the more complicated in rapidly growing cities where lack of capacity among built environment professionals is often compounded by a range of other issues such as lack of delegated authority and lack of finance.
Effective decision making in such circumstances is therefore especially important and requires effective leadership and collaboration at all levels. It also requires access to the best possible integrated data-driven tools to help support evidence-based policy making and effective programme development.
These are urgent issues. What is needed to accelerate change?
These are indeed urgent issues, especially when one considers that the foundations of tomorrow’s cities are being laid today and if we don’t get the big moves right now, especially in terms of land use planning, infrastructure and basic services, then we risk baking in problems for the future. To quote Henry Ford, ‘If we do what we’ve always done, then we’ll get what we always got’ and that isn’t going to create the future we need. So, what are we going to do differently?
Such are the nature and scale of the challenges being faced that we need to make progress across a broad front. Addressing what I would refer to as ‘normative’ issues such as curriculum development, continuing professional development etc on the one hand while simultaneously developing ‘transformative’ solutions that can be both scaled and replicated across our various networks, always recognising the need to account for local context, culture and climate.
And this is where reliable, easy to use, data-driven planning and mapping tools have a vitally important role to play, drawing on multiple data sources, embedding expert knowledge and combining with artificial intelligence and machine learning to better support those working in the field: policy makers, city managers and community leaders alike. Such tools can be used to enable scenario building, optioneering, support dialogue amongst different stakeholder groups together with business case preparation while increasing transparency and accountability, all forming part of a much wider capacity-building effort.
What are some inspiring examples you’ve seen in urban planning innovations recently?
Well, of course, we can see inspiring examples of innovation in many areas including the increasing use of integrated transport solutions, a growing focus on low-carbon development and resilient infrastructure together with greater use of remote sensing and data. But the majority of this innovation is occurring in the larger cities which are better resourced and simply aren’t finding their way into the hands of people who need them most, particularly in the public sector and in secondary/intermediate cities.
Two of the most exciting examples I’ve seen recently have both focused on mapping and have both been driven by local stakeholders working in partnership with external experts.
The first example was developed by eThekwini Municipality in South Africa with support from UNITAC, the United Nations Innovation Technology Accelerator for Cities. The product, known as BEAM (Building & Establishment Automated Mapper) uses artificial intelligence to produce automated maps of the city’s numerous informal settlements to help better support its ambitious settlement upgrading programme.
The second example was commissioned by the Zambian Ministry of Local Government, working in partnership with the International Growth Centre, the Commonwealth Association of Architects, New York Marron Institute of Urban Management and the UK’s national mapping agency, Ordnance Survey. Using existing aerial photography together with its advanced mapping and machine learning capability, Ordnance Survey was able to produce an accurate base map of Lusaka in less than 3 weeks, comprising over 400 sq km and 300,000 structures. With 65% of Lusaka’s 3m population living in informal settlements, the Lusaka Base Map will provide an invaluable resource for city planners and policy makers as they seek to address the many challenges being faced.
How can we help data-driven innovations both take root locally, and scale to have wider impact?
This is such an important question because experience teaches us that local ownership is key to the development of solutions that will stand the test of time and actually deliver on the ground. Indeed, both of the examples cited above were commissioned by local stakeholders to address local needs.
Most of the transformative change I’ve experienced has come from greater collaboration and the development process itself provides an important opportunity to bring together a diverse range of stakeholders to help inform the final outcome. This will also ensure that the specification of requirements, or problem statement, can be developed in a more inclusive manner which will help ensure a more integrated solution that will have greater long-term value.
In the case of the maps referred to above, for example, these are intended for use by a variety of different stakeholders to service a variety of needs such as land-use planning, land ownership, property tax, street addressing, provision of basic services etc. The maps will be relevant in the context of National Urban Policy on the one hand and for correlating local census data on the other. They each deal with a particular building typology in a particular geographical context and are therefore scalable for wider impact. Solutions which rely on artificial intelligence and machine learning can also simply be ‘re-trained’ to adapt to different contexts thereby further extending their application and usefulness.
It’s important to remember, of course, that such technology is generally a means to an end and not end in itself. So, it’s important to identify local champions together with those who will own, operate and maintain any new product/service and to recognise the need for skills development where required.
What are the next steps for you in supporting innovation and sustainable development?
One of the biggest learnings for us came from the Survey of the Built Environment Professions in the Commonwealth. Having recognised the nature and the scale of the challenges to be faced it quickly became apparent that these would not be solved by any one constituency alone, that we needed to work together in a much more effective multi-sector, cross-discipline collaboration and that the Commonwealth provides the perfect ecosystem from which to do so.
It’s for this reason that we came together with the Association of Commonwealth Universities, the Commonwealth Association of Planners and the Commonwealth Local Government Forum, with support from the Government of Rwanda and The Prince’s Foundation to launch a Call to Action on Sustainable Urbanisation across the Commonwealth in 2020. The Call to Action is addressed to Heads of State and seeks to bring a greater focus to bear on sustainable urbanisation in Commonwealth policy making, to leverage the Commonwealth network and to implement a programme of practical action to help deliver sustainable urbanisation across the Commonwealth.
We were therefore delighted when the Heads of Government adopted a Declaration on Sustainable Urbanisation at the recent Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting (CHOGM) which took place in Kigali, Rwanda in June 2022.
Interestingly, the Declaration explicitly highlights ‘the potential role of technology and use of data in enhancing the quality of urban governance and the provision of municipal services, particularly with regards to urban transport and mobility, water resource management and municipal finance.’
Our focus now is to work with a range of partners, such as UN-Habitat and yourselves at Challenge Works, to build on the momentum created by the Call to Action on Sustainable Urbanisation. We need funding partners and a team that will make the Global Urban Planning Challenge become reality. The challenge will offer the sort of transformational change required to help equip and empower local stakeholders to deal with the challenges they face. We are fully committed to this initiative and to leveraging our networks for greater impact. If you are interested, get in touch with me or Kathy at Challenge Works!
Peter Oborn is the President of the Commonwealth Association of Architects. He can be found on Twitter @PeterOborn and on LinkedIn.
