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Longitude Prize for Forecasting Ecosystem Tipping Points

Longitude Prize ideas

We are searching for topics and funders for the next Longitude Prize. This idea is a draft for discussion about one possible prize focus that we are exploring.

 

What is the problem?

Current ecosystem monitoring relies on manual surveys or retrospective satellite data, catching ecological collapse only after irreversible damage has occurred. Because nature speaks in subtle, complex biological signals, from bioacoustic shifts to subsurface stress signals, land stewards lack the real-time feedback loop needed to respond to early degradation or judge if restoration interventions are actually working.

Why does the solution contribute to solving this?

Decoding live signals from organisms and environments transforms reactive conservation into real-time, proactive stewardship. Early detection provides a crucial window to intervene before ecological tipping points are crossed, while immediately validating which restoration tactics succeed in the wild.

Who is the prize awarded to?

Awarded to the team that delivers the most accurate early prediction of ecosystems reaching tipping points – enabling early corrective action. As part of the prize, we would monitor several ecosystems through sensors and satellite data. Teams would receive this data and have to project it forward. The team whose forecast was able to most accurately predict ecological events, over the longest period of time, would win the grand prize.

Check out the other ideas

The best prize ideas are developed through extensive research and engagement with experts, stakeholders and people with lived experience of the problems they are focused on. We start with a first draft like the one above – then work to improve, refine and validate our thinking. If you are interested in sharing your expertise, or helping us secure funding for the next Longitude Prize, please reach out.

Talk to us about this idea