We are searching for topics and funders for the next Longitude Prize. This idea is a draft for discussion about one possible prize focus that we are exploring.
What is the problem?
Restoration projects overwhelmingly rely on historical ecological baselines that are rapidly becoming obsolete as climate patterns shift and extreme weather events increase. As a result, millions in restoration capital are lost on interventions that fail over the long term, such as planting native species that cannot survive predicted 2050 temperatures.
Why does the solution contribute to solving this?
By replacing historical assumptions with forward-looking, long-term ecological simulations, a predictive engine would give land managers decision-support tools to evaluate trade-offs and alternative scenarios before deploying capital, and help them design interventions that will work in real life. This shifts ecosystem restoration from high-risk trial-and-error to data-driven tools that enhance long-term biodiversity and resource sustainability.
Who is the prize awarded to?
Awarded to the team that can accurately forecast target ecosystem states under future climate scenarios and design long-term viable restoration interventions that take them into account. Finalists in the prize would carry out real-world trials of their interventions and track their effectiveness over the long-term. The interventions that perform best, compared to a control environment, would win the grand prize.
The best prize ideas are developed through extensive research and engagement with experts, stakeholders and people with lived experience of the problems they are focused on. We start with a first draft like the one above – then work to improve, refine and validate our thinking. If you are interested in sharing your expertise, or helping us secure funding for the next Longitude Prize, please reach out.
